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Состояние и переспективы СЯС США

http://www.nationaldefensemagazine....sOffProgramtoReplaceMinutemanIIIMissiles.aspx
Air Force Kicks Off Program to Replace Minuteman III Missiles
August 2016
...The service pre-selected the three competitors — Boeing, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. A request for proposals is expected by the end of this summer. Two of those three will be selected for a technology maturation and risk reduction phase. The goal is to deliver the first batch of new missiles by 2029, according to Air Force documents.
...
The ground-based strategic deterrence (GBSD) program “will resolve [Minuteman III] sustainment and aging issues, reduce total life-cycle costs and extend the U.S.’s ICBM capability out to 2075,” he said in written responses to the Senate Armed Services Committee prior to his confirmation hearing.

The program is expected to cost $62 billion from 2015 through fiscal year 2044, the Congressional Research Service reported. That breaks down to about $14 billion for upgrades to command-and-control systems and launch centers, and $48.5 billion for new missiles.

...

The 50 non-deployed missiles that were taken from Malmstrom are now being used for launch tests, and must be included in any modernization programs, CRS reported.
minuteman2_july15_web.jpg
One example of how costly it is to modernize the Minuteman III can be found in the fuze modernization program, which will replace the current MK21 fuze to “meet warfighter requirements and maintain current capability through 2030.” This program is needed because the current fuzes have long exceeded their original 10-year life span and U.S. Strategic Command does not have enough of them to meet its requirements.

For this upgrade alone, the Air Force received $58 million in fiscal year 2015 and $142 million in 2016. It has requested $190 million for 2017. The budget documents indicate that funding will continue to exceed $150 million per year through 2020, with a total program cost of $1.2 billion, CRS reported.

...

This new system would increase the accuracy of the ICBM force and allow the missiles to destroy hardened targets with a single warhead, the CRS report said. Multiple warhead missiles were eliminated under New START.

...

The Air Force plan has some critics.

Kingston Reif, director for disarmament and threat reduction policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington, D.C., said the decision to build a new ground based strategic deterrent missile could be postponed for up to a decade. There have been — and will be — so many upgrades to the Minuteman III that it is basically a new missile.

Upgrades to launch control centers and the command-and-control systems are separate budget items that will cost about $7 billion each. The Air Force has invested most of its resources over the past decades into upgrading the missiles, and neglected the ground stations. The Air Force could instead proceed with these upgrades, while modernizing the Minuteman IIIs in place, he said.

The budget bow wave expected in the 2020s — when the Defense Department will be forced to pay for Ohio-class submarines, the B-21 bomber and myriad other conventional weapon modernization programs — may force a postponement decision, he said.

Todd Harrison, senior fellow and director of defense budget and analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told reporters in January that replacing the missiles was “early to need,” and postponing the program by five years could save $2 billion per year.

The Air Force argues that its stock of 50 test launch missiles will be depleted by 2030, and if there is no new missile, it will have to dip into its deployed stock of 400. The association’s stance is that 400 missiles are more than what’s needed, although Reif declined to give an ideal number. New START expires in 2021, he added. It could be extended by five years if the United States and Russia agrees, or it could be renegotiated with lower missile numbers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-to-approve-work-on-new-nuclear-armed-missile
The new forecasts are likely to add to the debate over whether coming administrations will be able to afford what defense analysts call a “bow wave” of costs converging in the next decade for the new nuclear systems as well as nine Air Force conventional systems and plans for increased construction of naval vessels such as a second Ford-class aircraft carrier.

The ICBM “milestone marks the official beginning of the technology development stage where contracts will be awarded and spending” will “begin to ramp up,” from about $75 million this year to $1.6 billion in 2021...

...The Air Force plans to award two 36-month contracts by September 2017 for the ICBM’s technology development phase and then one contract in about 2020 for engineering, manufacturing, development and first five production lots

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...med-missile-seen-costing-u-s-85-billion-up-36
The U.S. Air Force’s program to develop and field a new intercontinental ballistic missile to replace the aging Minuteman III in the nuclear arsenal is now projected to cost at least $85 billion, about 36 percent more than a preliminary estimate by the service.

Even the $85 billion calculated by the Pentagon’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation office is a placeholder number that’s at the low end of potential costs, according to an Aug. 23 memo from Pentagon weapons buyer Frank Kendall to Air Force Secretary Deborah James. It includes $22.6 billion for research and development, $61.5 billion for procurement and $718 million for related military construction.

...service to move toward buying 642 missiles at an average cost of $66.4 million each to support a deployed force of 400 weapons and to budget at least $1.25 billion annually from 2036 to 2040 for operations and support costs.
 
Из статьи, датированной июлем 2016.
http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2...tep-toward-buying-new-nuclear-weapons/130355/
Despite Objections, Pentagon Takes Step Toward Buying New Nuclear Weapons
Пятиминутка ненависти:
A group of 10 senators, all Democrats, have called on the Obama administration to scale back its plans for new nuclear weapons and the bombers and submarines that will carry them. The senators specifically called for canceling LRSO, saying it could save taxpayers $20 billion.
“Nuclear war poses the gravest risk to American national security,” the senators wrote.
Немножко фактического материала:
The Congressional Budget Office last year estimated it would cost about $350 billion to buy new nuclear weapons, ICBMs, stealth bombers, submarines and cruise missiles, between 2015 and 2024 based on the Pentagon’s current plans. The total cost of buying all of the new weapons over the next 25 years is estimated at more than $700 billion.
Т.е. модернизация СЯС (включая "товары двойного назначения", как бомберы и КР) будет стоить в многолетней перспективе 30-35 миллиардов в год. С одной стороны - немало, с другой - около 5% оборонного бюджета.
 
С новой КР LRSO никак не угомонятся.

В июле 2016 ВВС издали "request for proposal".
http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDispl...clear-air-launched-cruise-missile-replac.aspx

Сейчас же одна сторона уговаривает Маттиса и Трампа поддержать проект
http://www.scout.com/military/warrior/story/1694776-af-accelerates-lrso-nuclear-cruise-missile

...А другая борется за мир и разоружение.
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/democrats-renew-attack-on-new-nuclear-cruise-missile
 
С новой КР LRSO никак не угомонятся.

В июле 2016 ВВС издали "request for proposal".
http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDispl...clear-air-launched-cruise-missile-replac.aspx

Сейчас же одна сторона уговаривает Маттиса и Трампа поддержать проект
http://www.scout.com/military/warrior/story/1694776-af-accelerates-lrso-nuclear-cruise-missile

...А другая борется за мир и разоружение.
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/democrats-renew-attack-on-new-nuclear-cruise-missile

Готов побиться об заклад, что если разоруженцы добьются прекращения программы LRSO, они на лету перейдут к тезису "бомбардировщики без КР устарели 60 лет назад, это самый бесполезный компонент триады, давайте их оттуда выведем и спишем все ядерные бомбы" :)

В качестве реального примера уже сейчас можно посмотреть на позицию американских и британских разоруженцев по поводу ПЛАРБ. (Если чуть упрощённо, американские говорят: "ПЛАРБ абсолютно неуязвимы, поэтому можно всё списать и оставить только их"; а британские, поскольку Британия уже пришла к этому состоянию, когда из триады остались только ПЛАРБ, говорят про transparent ocean, underwater drone swarms и т.п. с выводом, что ПЛАРБ жутко уязвимы, гарантированного ответного удара не обеспечивают, а раз так - можно спокойно их списать и остаться вообще без ЯО :) ).
 
В США начали работу над МБР нового поколения

ВВС США определились с финалистами тендера по замене межконтинентальных баллистических ракет Minuteman III. Сегодня, 22 августа, портал defensenews.com сообщил о том, что корпорации Boeing и Northrop получили контракты на разработку МБР нового поколения.

Изначально в тендере, стартовавшем в прошлом году, принимали участие три претендента — Lockheed Martin, Boeing и Northrop. Сегодня стало известно, что ВВС США подписали контракты с Boeing и Northrop на дальнейшие работы. Так, Boeing получил $349 млн, а Northrop — $328 млн. В течение трех лет каждая из компаний будет работать над собственным вариантом МБР, после чего командование ВВС США определит победителя, который и поставит армии сотни новых ракет взамен устаревающих Minuteman III.

Пуск ракеты Minuteman III

Планируется заменить все 450 ракет Minuteman III, которые стоят на вооружении ВВС США, а также, возможно, инфраструктуру для их запуска. Новые МБР должны поступить в войска уже в 2027 году и прослужить до 2070-х годов. Предварительная стоимость контракта оценивается в $62,3 млрд, но в военном ведомстве указывают, что стоимость программы может вырасти до $100 млрд.

Межконтинентальная баллистическая ракета Minuteman III в настоящее время является единственной принятой на вооружение в США МБР наземного базирования. Максимальная дальность полёта ракеты, которая может снаряжаться одной либо тремя боеголовками, составляет 15 000 км (для сравнения — «Тополь-М» — 10 000). Для Minuteman III предусмотрено только шахтное базирование.

Модернизация американского ядерного арсенала стартовала в 2013 году в рамках реализации стратегии «3+2», и в течение 25 лет семь типов ядерных боезарядов будут заменены на пять новых. По словам главы Национального управления ядерной безопасности Фрэнка Клотца, «США будут иметь в своем ядерном арсенале три боеголовки для ракет наземного и морского базирования, а также два типа боезарядов, доставляемых по воздуху. Один из них – бомба свободного падения, второй – боеголовка, устанавливаемая на крылатую ракету». По различным оценкам, ядерное перевооружение США может стоить порядка $1 трлн, из которых $350 млрд будут потрачены в ближайшее десятилетие.
 
К разработке новой МБР
http://breakingdefense.com/2017/08/new-icbm-cheaper-than-upgraded-minuteman-boeing-on-gbsd/
A brand-new ICBM may cost the nation more than $85 billion, but keeping the geriatric Minuteman will cost even more. That’s according to Boeing, the aerospace giant that began building the original Minuteman I in 1958 and has maintained the much-modified Minuteman III since 1970.
...
While parts of the guidance and propulsion systems date to 1993, for example, some parts are so old the original manufacturers have long since gone out of business. That forces the Air Force to expensively reinvent the wheel – or, say, a 1961-vintage mechanical coding device.

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Back in June, Gen. John Hyten, head of Strategic Command, lamented the time and money it would take to develop GBSD: $85 billion over 20 years for 400 missiles, compared to $17 billion in today’s dollars over five years for the initial 800 Minutemans. The military-industrial complex needs to relearn how to go fast, take risks, fail, and try again, he said, instead of grinding along in today’s bureaucratic, cripplingly slow acquisition system.
 
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